I. Overview

As a result of the popular dissatisfaction against the government of Mohamed Bazoum who was viewed as a collaborator and promoter of French interests in the region, a military takeover took place on July 26, 2023. This coup intervened amidst growing disappointment of the civil society and within the military vis-à-vis the fight against terrorism that allowed thousands of French troops to be stationed in Niger.

The French military presence in the last decade was established through different framework such the G5 Sahel, Operation TAKUBA (meaning sword) and Operation Barkhane. As such, the French convinced the then Niger authorities to allow multinational troops operation such EUCAP Sahel that brough in troops from Germany, Britain etc.

The G5 Sahel spans across five countries (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mauritania), Operation TAKUBA three countries (Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso) and EUCAP Sahel only in Mali and Niger. As such, these operations brought in around several thousands of troops from essentially European and American partners.

At the peak of their operation, the France have deployed over 4.500 troops in Mali, over 1.500 in Niger and hundreds in Burkina Faso.

1. Situation in Niger

Despite the ousting of the French army, there are several foreign troops still present in the country. The Germans have few hundreds of soldiers in the far-eastern part of the country. The Americans, after withdrawing their troops from the capital Niamey, have redeployed to the northern part of the country in Agadez region. The drone base in named base 201 and is tagged as the biggest American drone base in the world. Also, in the far-North of the country, in the town of Dirkou border with Libya, another CIA-operated drone base was built but very few information is available about it.

2. Sanctions

As it is a tradition in the African continent, whenever a coup d’Etat that is not backed by foreign (i.e., western) approval takes place, sanctions will be automatically imposed upon the coup masterminds. It is clearly obvious that coups in Mali and Burkina Faso were heavily sanctioned,

while coups that took place in Chad and Gabon were only verbally condemned. In fact, the Chadian military ruler was sworn-in in presence of French president Emmanuel Macron.

However, the situation in Niger republic is obviously more complicated than the rest of the Sahelian states, due to the fact that the sanctions imposed on the country were unprecedented in the history of the continent.

The sanctions imposed by the regional organizations, the European union and the United States consisted of cutting financial assistance, closure of borders, suspending the participation within the regional organizations, total blockade of basic necessities and pharmaceutical products, cutting of electricity supply and an imminent threat of military intervention. All of these sanctions were applied at once and within a week following the coup, prior to any talks or negotiation.

The decision to impose blanket sanctions on the country and its populations have severe consequences both economically, socially, politically and even geopolitically. This situation has caused a surge in reaction from the Niger citizens that rally in support of the army and created a more cohesive sentiment among the people as the threat of military aggression from the ECOWAS pushed by France was looming.

The reaction was not only from the inside the country, but also from all the pan Africanist movements and youth organizations across the African continent.

 3. Internal Reactions

The illegal and irrational decisions of the regional organizations (ECOWAS and WAEMU) backed by France and some European countries have triggered strong reactions from the population which violently attacked French representations in the country and months of protest against the French military presence.

As a result, the French troops were ousted from Niger, the French ambassador declared as personae-non-grata and Niger’s ambassador to France was recalled.

4. Regional Reactions

Across west Africa and the entire continent, most of the civil societies and citizens have criticized and rejected the sanctions military threats against Niger. As a result, Mali and Burkina Faso officially declared their support to Niger and stated that any aggression against Niger is tantamount to an attack to their respective nations and their will militarily intervene on the sides of Niger. This solidarity led to the creation of the Sahel States Alliance (AES Alliance des Etats du Sahel) which is a defense pact that aims at combatting insecurity, defending against external aggression and promoting socioeconomic development, with the final goal to establish a confederation between those nations.

Analysis

II. Implications

The diplomatic squabble that ECOWAS found itself engaged in with member states partly due to the pressure by western donors and partly to the lack of independent vision will have serious and long-lasting and consequences for the west African region as well as the geopolitical configuration in the international system.

1. Regional Implications

 In the case of the west African region the possible consequences of the diplomatic failure of ECOWAS to solve political problems with diplomacy will likely result in:

a. Split of ECOWAS

The possibility for some countries to leave the organization is currently an option among policymakers and decision-makers in certain member states. This situation is largely as a result of the perceived increasing meddling by the US, France and the EU in the decision-making process of the organization. Also, the failure of the ECOWAS to help combat terrorism but ready to invade a member state for internal political problems. And the imposition of sanctions that do not exist anywhere in the provisions of the ECOWAS charter.

b. New Currency

In the case of planned common west African currency, the ECO, which is still at the stage of project, the likelihood for such project to crumble is very high. First of all, the illegal freezing of assets of countries under military rule (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger) has pushed them to establish a framework for a common Sahelian currency.

If the common Sahelian currency project materializes, this will come as a huge blow to

lingering ECO currency project which has been initiated in the year 2000, and since then failed to be actively established.

c. Establishment of the AES confederation 

The charter of the LIPTAKO-GOURMA which laid the foundation of the Sahel States Alliance (AES) is unprecedented in the history of post-colonial Africa, in the sense that it serves as the cornerstone of a future confederation among African nations, thereby creating the first pan-African state. A dream that most Africans have been cherishing for decades.

Consequently, the creation of such confederation will inevitably lead to the dislocation of the ECOWAS, as the organization is gradually losing its credibility in the eyes of the west African people.

2. International Implications

Nowadays, the world has become so interconnected and interdependent that no country can live in autarchy, and any destabilization in one will have repercussions across the globe. In this sense, the political situation in Niger and the Sahelian states will inevitably impact the global dynamics that are taking shape.

a. Realignment of the AES with the BRICS

The creation of the AES came as a shock to the western hegemony in a region that has historically under the influence of France and by extension, the global west. All of those three countries have kicked out French troops with Malian and Niger authorities going to the extent of accusing France of supporting terrorists groups.

With France loosing influence in the region, the US is now stepping in to maintain the western domination with a carrot and stick approach. The attempts to destabilize and isolate those 

three countries give them no choice but to find strong and reliable partners capable of supporting them in countering western bullying.

The BRICS appear to be the perfect organization capable of providing such support, with Russia and China openly supporting the military transitions in the Sahel.

b. Reinforcement of Russian presence in the region

It is now clear that the Russian paramilitary operators (known as Wagner) are present and operating in Mali. They train and advise Malian army in the usage of newly acquired Russian weapons and armaments. In Burkina the repetitive attempts to overthrow the president of transition Ibrahim Traore and the relentless pressure on the military transition in Niger is gradually pushing those countries to reinforce ties with Russia.

On the other hand, the proven efficiency of the Turkish TB-2 drones in combatting terrorist groups in both Mali and Burkina Faso coupled with the decision of Turkish authorities not to apply sanctions on those countries is placing Turkiye as potential strategic partner in upcoming configuration.

c. Energy and the Geopolitical positioning

The Sahel is well-known as a richly endowed region in the world. The vast reserves of uranium in Niger and Mali, the lithium deposits, the oil and gas reserves in the lake Chad basin, the Taoudeni basin and Uilimenden basin, iron ore, manganese, cobalt, gold and molybdenum are some the mineral resources that lying abundantly in the region. Also, the huge underground water reserves under the Sahara Desert have been at the center the interest of western powers.

Another aspect is the geographical position of central Sahel, which serves as a nexus between west Africa, central Africa and the north African region or Maghreb. Any major power that manages to position itself within that space will ultimately have total control over the African continent.

Ecowas Member Countries And Their Positions On Sanctions Against Niger