The Nightmare Awaiting Israel After the Ceasefire

On the morning of October 7, 2023, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, affiliated with Hamas, broke out from the land where they had been confined behind concrete walls for 17 years and launched the 'Al-Aqsa Flood' attack against Israel. This marked the beginning of the Hamas-Israel war, which lasted for 15 months and has now ended with a permanent ceasefire.

This war was an unbalanced and immoral conflict between a coalition of states with massive economies and powerful militaries—led by Israel and its unconditional supporters, including the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France, and India—against 2.3 million civilian Gazans and their resistance group, Hamas. Throughout the war, Israel’s actions, which blatantly disregarded international law, including acts of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes, were justified and shielded by these nations under the pretext of legitimate self-defense. However, in the end, the true victors were those who remained steadfast and sought refuge in the help of Allah, the ultimate conqueror.

According to figures from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, by the end of December, Israeli attacks had killed nearly 47,000 people, 70% of them women and children, right before the eyes of the world, while at least 110,000 others were injured. This meant that in Gaza, one in every 50 people had been killed, and one in every 20 had been wounded. Moreover, a study published by the medical journal The Lancet in January revealed that the actual death toll was 40% higher than reported.

Israel, which committed genocide against the Palestinian people in collaboration with major powers, ultimately surrendered in the face of the unwavering resilience of the people of Gaza who refused to abandon their land. Forced to acknowledge the reality on the ground, Israel had no choice but to sit at the negotiating table and agree to a permanent ceasefire with Hamas, the very group it had long declared as an enemy that must be eliminated.

Why Was Israel Forced to Agree to A Permanent Ceasefire After Nine Months?

The permanent ceasefire agreement accepted by Hamas and signed by the Israeli government was identical to the deal proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden nine months earlier.

On May 31, 2024, Biden called on Hamas to accept his three-phase roadmap for a permanent ceasefire, and Hamas responded positively. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the proposal, stating, "Israel’s conditions for ending the war remain unchanged: the destruction of Hamas’ military and administrative capabilities, the release of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. Without meeting these conditions, the idea that Israel would agree to a permanent ceasefire is unrealistic."

Under intense global pressure, the Biden administration was forced to call for a ceasefire. However, this call was largely a tactic to appease public outrage while buying time for Netanyahu to pursue his goal of eliminating Hamas. While ceasefire negotiations continued, the U.S. simultaneously supplied Israel with billions of dollars in military aid. In July 2024, addressing the U.S. Congress amid a standing ovation, Netanyahu openly acknowledged this strategy, declaring, "Give us the weapons faster, and we will finish the job faster."

However, over the past nine months, Netanyahu failed to achieve any of the conditions he had set for a permanent ceasefire. He was unable to neutralize Hamas’ military and administrative infrastructure, he could not dismantle the tunnels, and he failed to weaken public support for Hamas in Gaza. Despite insisting that all hostages must be released as a precondition for any deal, he could not accomplish that either. In the end, he had no choice but to sit at the negotiating table with the very group he had labeled as terrorists.

Moreover, U.S. officials had to travel to Ankara and personally request President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to mediate Hamas’ return to negotiations. In his farewell speech, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Hamas agreed to rejoin the talks thanks to Erdoğan’s mediation. The fact that the U.S. — and by extension, Israel — turned to Turkey’s president, who has defined Israel as a terrorist state and compared Hamas to the Turkish independence movement Kuvay-i Milliye, was a clear sign that the regional dynamics had shifted significantly.

So, What Conditions Ultimately Forced Israel into A Ceasefire?

Israel’s Economy and Military Collapse as Opposition Rises

With its economy in ruins, Israel finally realized that it could no longer sustain this war, nor could it rely on threats and coercion to achieve its goals. By 2024, the country’s GDP had shrunk by 20.7%, while the cost of war had skyrocketed to nearly $100 billion. Around 60,000 businesses had shut down, and numerous investment projects were canceled. Meanwhile, international credit rating agencies continued to downgrade Israel’s credit score, further deepening its financial crisis.

As for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), soldiers had lost hope for victory and faith in their government. Many no longer wanted to fight, while reservists increasingly refused to report for duty. Designed for short-term military operations, the Israeli army found itself psychologically exhausted from this prolonged war, an experience it had never encountered before. The relentless bombings had worn out Israel’s aircraft and helicopter fleets, leaving them in urgent need of renewal. The country was also facing a severe ammunition shortage, compounding its military struggles. In short, the Al-Aqsa Flood attack exposed a harsh reality—without external protection and assistance, Israel was incapable of defending itself.

Meanwhile, as the war dragged on without success, domestic unity began to crumble. Netanyahu’s indifference toward the hostages infuriated the public, fueling months-long protests that refused to die down. Adding to the social unrest, the ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions within the government, who saw themselves above the law, continued to act recklessly, pushing the patience of other segments of Israeli society to the breaking point.

The Balance of Power in the Region Has Shifted

The most significant factor that forced Israel into a permanent ceasefire was the shifting balance of power in the Middle East. In its latest report submitted to the Israeli government in January, the Nagel Commission, which operates under the Israeli administration, warned of fundamental changes in the region, the emergence of new power players, and the need to prepare for unexpected developments. The report highlighted that Syrian opposition groups forming an alliance with Turkey posed a new and formidable threat to Israel's security, one that could potentially surpass even the Iranian threat. It further cautioned that Tel Aviv must be prepared for a direct military confrontation with Turkey if necessary.

As clearly outlined in the report, fear of a war with Turkey—for which Israel was entirely unprepared—ultimately forced the Israeli government to end its war with Hamas and sign a permanent ceasefire.

Fear of a Shift in Trump's Middle East and Israel Policies

With Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, growing uncertainty over his potential policy shifts regarding the Middle East—and particularly Israel—began to dominate discussions within the Israeli government. Concerns escalated after Trump stated that "Erdoğan was the real winner in Syria" and described the Turkish president as "a friend and someone he respects". Additionally, Trump sent strong signals that he might cut U.S. support for the PKK/YPG, a group openly backed by Israel, further hinting at a significant policy shift.

Moreover, on January 8, Trump made a striking move by sharing a video on the Truth Social platform featuring prominent American economist Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, in which Sachs stated: "(Netanyahu) dragged us into endless wars and used his power in U.S. politics to get whatever he wanted. He is a deep, dark son of a b…". By sharing this video, Trump left no doubt about his disdain for Netanyahu.

This stark contrast was particularly significant given that just months earlier, in July 2024, Netanyahu had delivered a speech in the U.S. Congress, where every sentence was met with thunderous applause. Now, it appeared that his era of unconditional American support was coming to an end.

Israel’s Dark Future Awaits

The Dream of Greater Israel Has Faded

Despite relentless massacres, Netanyahu’s failure to defeat Hamas and his eventual return to the negotiating table exposed Israel’s inability to realize the dream of Greater Israel. With the shifting balance of power in the Middle East, Israel will now struggle to maintain its existence rather than expand its territory. It will no longer find the Palestinian and Muslim populations as fragmented as before, nor will it enjoy the unwavering support of major powers willing to trample on human dignity for its sake. Most significantly, any future aggression by Israel will be met with a united regional defense alliance, including Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan.

The collapse of the Greater Israel ideal has dealt a severe blow to Zionism. The resulting disillusionment is weakening Israeli citizens' attachment to the state and the land, especially among those who migrated there from abroad. This will likely halt Aliyah, the immigration of Jews from the diaspora to Israel. The loss of faith in Israel’s future could also discourage Jewish investment, slowing the country's economic growth.

Palestine’s Full UN Membership is Inevitable

Palestine is currently recognized by 145 of the 193 UN member states and holds non-member observer state status at the UN. Following the permanent ceasefire, the international agenda will shift toward the recognition of a fully independent and sovereign Palestinian state within the pre-June 4, 1967 borders, with Al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital.

Israel will no longer be able to prevent Palestinians from determining their own future and governing themselves. Moreover, in the near future, Israel will likely be forced to withdraw from the Syrian and Jordanian territories it occupied in 1967.

Growing Internal Divisions Could Lead to Civil War

Israel is a multinational and multicultural society, with nearly all of its citizens or their parents having been born in other countries before immigrating to Israel. The society is deeply divided along religious and political lines. Broadly speaking, it consists of four main groups based on religious observance:

• Hilonim (Secular Jews – 49%)
• Masortim (Traditional Jews – 29%)
• Datim (Religious-Nationalist Jews – 13%)
• Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox Jews – 9%)

Ashkenazi Jews tend to align with the Hilonim and Haredim, while Sephardic/Mizrahi Jews mostly identify as Datim and Masortim. Israeli governments are typically formed through fragile coalitions between these factions.

In daily life, these groups live in separate social compartments with minimal interaction, and the war has only deepened these divisions. The prolonged conflict has sharpened political and societal fractures, increasing mistrust and hostility among different factions. With the war over, fears are growing that these tensions could escalate into civil conflict.

During the war, the far-right government distributed thousands of weapons to its ultra-Orthodox Jewish supporters. The possibility that these extremist factions, believing their rule is divinely ordained, might turn their weapons against political opponents to maintain power poses a serious threat to Israel’s internal stability.

Israel Faces Prolonged Political Instability

With the ceasefire in place, Israel is now turning inward to address its internal crises. The failures of October 7 and the 15-month-long war will be blamed entirely on Netanyahu and his far-right cabinet. Given that Netanyahu is already facing corruption charges, he is highly likely to be convicted in the aftermath of the war.

Even after Netanyahu, the prospects of forming a stable government in Israel are slim. Since its founding in 1948, no single party has ever secured an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset, making Israel dependent on coalition governments. As social divisions deepen, the chances of forming a broad, stable, and long-lasting coalition are growing increasingly unlikely.

Settlers Will Be Treated as Terrorists Worldwide

Currently, there are 13 settler units in occupied East Jerusalem and 253 in the West Bank, housing 700,000 ultra-Orthodox settlers. Moving forward, the illegal seizure of Palestinian land and the displacement of Palestinian families will increasingly be recognized as acts of terrorism by the international community. Settler organizations and associations will be blacklisted as terrorist entities, and settlers across the world will face terrorist classification, ultimately forcing them to abandon their occupation of Palestinian property.

War Criminals Will Be Prosecuted Everywhere

For 15 months, the Hamas-Israel war remained the world’s top news story. Zionists failed to push the war out of the global spotlight, and during this time, war crimes were systematically documented. As a result, legal cases have already been launched against IDF soldiers involved in war crimes, with lawsuits being filed across multiple countries. One of the first examples is the Hind Rajab Foundation’s legal actions, which aim to prosecute Israeli soldiers responsible for war crimes in Gaza. Such cases are expected to expand significantly.

The fear of arrest is now haunting Israeli soldiers involved in war crimes, making international travel increasingly risky for them.

Growing Fear of Social Exclusion Among Diaspora Jews

For years, diaspora Jews have enjoyed privileged and comfortable lives under the umbrella of antisemitism protection. However, following Israel’s genocide in Gaza, this comfort has been shattered. Across various countries, Jewish communities have faced increasing backlash, with reports of individuals avoiding speaking Hebrew in public, refraining from wearing Jewish symbols, and even hesitating to send their children to Jewish schools and synagogues.

Polls show a sharp rise in anti-Zionist sentiment, particularly among younger generations. The most significant surge in anti-Zionism has been observed in the United States, leaving many in the Jewish diaspora shocked. As a result, it is now evident that the backlash against Israel’s genocide will also impact diaspora Jews worldwide.

A Major Reckoning for Israel: The Hannibal Doctrine and Military Casualties

Reports, images, and testimonies published by Haaretz and other media sources have confirmed that a majority of the 1,200 Israelis killed during the October 7 attacks were actually killed by Israeli military forces using helicopter and tank fire. These killings were attributed to the enforcement of the Hannibal Doctrine, a controversial military policy that allows the Israeli army to eliminate its own captured soldiers rather than let them fall into enemy hands.

To suppress this revelation, the Israeli government-imposed media censorship, preventing further news coverage and refusing to open an investigation.

If these claims are fully investigated and proven, the Israeli public will be forced to confront the shocking reality that their own army massacred Israeli civilians. Such revelations could trigger deep national trauma and internal reckonings within the country.

Additionally, claims that the Israeli government deliberately concealed the true number of military casualties during the 15-month war are also gaining traction. If these accusations are proven true, they could further deepen political divisions and intensify internal conflicts within Israel.

Conclusion

The genocide case filed against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) by South Africa, with numerous states joining the proceedings, along with the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on war crimes charges, has solidified Israel’s status as a rogue state committing genocide in the eyes of the global community. The international isolation surrounding Israel continues to expand. With the implementation of a permanent ceasefire, even powerful nations that once prioritized Zionism over human rights will no longer be able to stand behind a genocidal state.

Hamas’ struggle has gone far beyond the liberation of Gaza from occupation—it has dealt severe blows to the global dominance of Zionism. The resistance in Gaza has awakened people around the world, revealing the extent of Zionist influence and censorship in politics, media, academia, arts, and numerous other fields. It has demonstrated that when Zionism is involved, political independence, freedom of thought, the right to protest, human rights, and even scientific integrity become secondary.

Despite the heavy price it has paid, Hamas has exposed Israel’s inability to fulfill its Greater Israel ambitions, calling into question Israel’s very future.

The balance of power in the region has now shifted, and Israel’s era of unchecked aggression has come to an end. Given the new geopolitical reality, all states will be forced to reassess their alliances and strategic calculations accordingly.

Author: Sinan TAVUKCU