The Al-Aqsa Flood and Palestine: Is Israel Winning or Losing?

This article was published on 07.10.2024.

*Alper Tan/SDE Vice President

One year has passed in the war that started with Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7th, 2023. So then, what is the result at this point? Who is winning and who is losing? We, of course, have a verdict, but let's leave that for the end and try to summarize the conflict and its global reception up to this point.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas announced the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. According to their officials, more than 5,000 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel within 20 minutes.

After the attack, Israel declared war on Hamas. 500,000 Israelis were displaced. Israel decided to declare war for the first time since the Yom Kippur War. It launched a massive bombardment of Gaza. Due to the security weakness of Israeli intelligence, the Kassam Brigades managed to cross the borders and enter civilian settlements. Many Israeli civilians and soldiers were killed or captured. Some military bases were captured.

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has martyred 50,000 Palestinians, including 17,000 children and 12,000 women. Nearly 100,000 people have been injured, and 19,000 children in the Gaza Strip have lost their mothers or fathers or both in the attacks. The attacks have caused 33 billion dollars worth of damage in Gaza.

Israel's success!

After October 7, Israel invaded northern and southern Gaza with around 40,000 combat troops. They have displaced 80 percent of the population, and killed more than 40,000 people. Furthermore, they have dropped at least 70,000 tons of bombs. This figure is more than the combined weight of the bombs dropped on London, Dresden and Hamburg in the Second World War. It has destroyed or damaged more than half of all buildings in Gaza and restricted access to water, food and electricity in the area, pushing the entire population to the brink of famine.

What about Palestine and Hamas?

Given the duration of the what was originally predicted to be a short conflict, Israel has greatly underestimated both the scale of Hamas' power and the quantity of resources at their disposal. Simply put, Israel has and continues to fail to realize that the carnage and destruction it is causing in Gaza is only making their enemy stronger.

Killing is not success

Israel has constantly focused on the number of Palestinians killed by their army, as if this statistic was the most important measure of their success. Yes, 40-50 thousand people were killed. Israel claims that 14,000 of the estimated 30,000 to 40,000 fighters Hamas had before the war were killed, while Hamas claims it lost only 6,000 to 8,000. US intelligence sources put Hamas' actual death toll at around 10,000. Though, solely focusing on these numbers makes it difficult to fully assess Hamas' strength.

Hamas also strong in northern Gaza

According to a report conducted by Israel, Hamas has more fighters in the northern parts of Gaza — which the Israeli army captured in the fall with the loss of hundreds of soldiers — than in Rafah in the south.

Hamas is stronger than before October 7, while Israel is significantly behind

Hamas can still strike Israel. According to Western sources, Hamas has some 15,000 mobilized fighters. This is about ten times the number of fighters who carried out the October 7 attacks. In addition, more than 80 percent of the organization's underground tunnel network is still functional, enabling Hamas to store weapons and evade Israeli surveillance, arrests, and attacks. Much of Hamas' senior leadership in Gaza remains intact.

The future possibilities the attacks are opening

Even as a group’s immediate losses mount, excessive attention to the number of casualties leads to confusing tactical and strategic success as well as ignoring the key metrics that will show whether an opponent's strategic strength is increasing. According to experts, the most important source of strength for an insurgent group is not the size of its current generation of fighters, but its potential to win support from the people it represents.

The more they are hit, the stronger they get

Losing the support of a community can be devastating for insurgent groups. After the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, US estimates put the number of Sunni insurgency fighters at 20,000 in the fall of 2004 and 30,000 in February 2007, up from 5,000 in the spring of 2004. ,

According to the surveys, Hamas is gaining strength

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) is a polling organization established in 1993 after the Oslo Accords and cooperates with Israeli institutions in order conduct its research. PSR conducted surveys with Gazans in temporary shelters after October 7. Five separate PSR surveys, from June 2023 until the most recent survey completed in June 2024, reveal a striking finding. In almost every respect, Hamas gets more support among Palestinians today than it did before October 7.

Hamas support is twice that of Fatah

Political support for Hamas has increased, especially compared to its rivals. While Hamas and its main rival Fatah enjoyed roughly equal support in June of 2023, twice as many Palestinians supported Hamas in June of 2024: 40 percent support for Hamas compared to 20 percent support for Fatah.

Gaza stands with Hamas

In September 2023, 53 percent of Palestinians supported armed attacks on Israeli civilians. In March 2024, 73 percent of Palestinians believed that Hamas was justified in launching the October 7 attack.

60% of Gazans have lost a family member

As of March 2024, the weight of the perceived cost of the war on the Palestinian population is high. Sixty percent of Palestinians in Gaza report that a family member has been killed in the current war, and more than three quarters report that a family member has been killed or injured.

As martyrs rise, resistance grows stronger

It is true that Israel has killed thousands of Hamas fighters in Gaza, however, these losses in the current generation of fighters are being compensated for by increased support for Hamas and the group's ability to better recruit the next generation.

A key point

Hamas is now more popular and more attractive in the world than it was before October 7. In the absence of an acceptable plan for the future of Gaza and the Palestinian people, Hamas and others like it will become more numerous and more powerful.

Hamas is stronger than before October 7

Israel's air and ground operations in Gaza have neither been able to defeat Hamas nor even come close to destroying them. On the contrary, by the measures that matter, Hamas is stronger today than it was on October 7.

What about Israel?

The August 2024 report of the Israeli Center for Addiction and Mental Health shows that the Jewish/Zionist people are facing a social catastrophe. According to this report: -The use of addictive substances in the country has increased by 25%. -The use of sleeping pills has increased dramatically by 189%. -From October 2023, cases of domestic violence increased by 100%.

A report published by the Israel Statistical Center in July (2024):

-The number of settlers leaving Israel increased by 285% between October 2023 and June 2024. -The number of new settlers dropped by 21% between October 2023 and March 2024. -Israel's tourism sector was also severely affected, with tourism falling by 75% in the first half of 2024.

A study by Coface PDI Company dated July 2024:

-Since October 7, 2023, the number of closed businesses and canceled projects has reached 46,000. -Economic uncertainty and social instability in Israel have made it impossible for many businesses to continue operating. -The agricultural sector is at a great loss. Between October 7, 2023, and April 2024, at least $200 million worth of fruit and vegetable harvests were lost.

According to the Times of Israel:

The tech industry is experiencing a wave of layoffs. In the past four months, almost half of tech companies have laid off between 5% and 10% of their employees. Meanwhile, international credit rating agencies, one after another, have downgraded Israel. Since October 7, 2023, Hamas and Gaza have lost $33 billion in financial losses while Israel has lost $67 billion in financial losses.

The imperialist global order collapsed under the Al-Aqsa Flood

Türkiye Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan shed light on the state of the colonialist global order that supports genocidal Israel with his statement, “The current international system no longer responds to the needs of humanity and is bankrupt.” US Permanent Representative to the UN Linda Thomas Greenfield said, “We use our veto power to protect US interests. We have done so for years in the UNSC,” exposing the injustice of the system.

Zionism will be declared a “global terrorist organization” by international courts It will be a crime to say “I am a Zionist”

Israel’s continued aggressive and rabid policies have revealed the real face of the Jews and Zionists to the entire world. No longer does the narrative that the Jews and Zionists are an innocent and oppressed people because of Hitler’s genocide convince anyone. Israel, Judaism and Zionism have evolved into a hated phenomenon all over the world. All this has happened as a result of Israel's aggressive and brutal policies that recognize no rules and no sacredness.

This is the biggest loss that Israel and the states that use Israel as an apparatus cannot easily regain. And it is very likely that in the next few years there will be no such state as Israel. In all likelihood, Zionism will be declared a “global terrorist organization” by international courts, and saying “I am a Zionist” will no longer be something to be proud of, but rather, a “crime”.

On the night of October 1, 2024, Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of missiles. A large number of missiles penetrated the Iron Dome — which they rely on heavily for security— and fell on Israeli cities and critical points. The October 7 Al-Aqsa Flood and the most important achievement of Iran's missile attacks is to show the world that the IRON DOME defense system, in which Israel takes refuge, can be easily overcome.

A bigger war may start in our region very soon. Most countries in the region are ready for it. If Israel and its supporters risk such madness, they will pay a very heavy price. Israel is now sitting in a house without a roof. Anything can fall on Israel's head at any moment. Israel and those behind it are in the process of collapse and disintegration...

Alper TAN

October 3rd 2024