A conference titled "Global Food Security and the Role of Belarus" was held at the Institute of Strategic Thinking. The speaker of the conference, Belarusian Ambassador to Ankara Victor Rybak, made evaluations on the subject.
Victor Rybak included the following statements in his speech:
"Today I would like to highlight the topic of global food security and the impact of Belarus and Turkey on it. The topic of food security in the world has been regularly discussed within the framework of international, including specialized, organizations for many decades. However, the global situation with hunger has not improved in recent years.
According to the report "The State of Food security and Nutrition in the world" prepared by FAO, UNICEF, WHO and others, global hunger indicators remained virtually unchanged from 2021 to 2022, but still far exceed the level preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (9.2% of the world's population is hungry in 2022 compared to 7.9% in 2019). In 2022, there were between 691 and 783 million hungry people in the world, and about 29.6% of the world's population – 2.4 billion people – faced the problem of moderate or acute food insecurity.
In this regard, I would like to emphasize that Turkey is an active player in ensuring food security in the world. It was Turkish President R.T. Erdogan who played a key role in concluding a package quadrilateral agreement between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN to organize the export of Ukrainian grain, as well as agricultural products and fertilizers from Russia. According to official data, in one year of operation of this agreement, 32.7 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine.
This agreement was suspended on the initiative of Russia on July 17 this year, because Western countries did not heed the UN call to resolve issues related to the organization of supplies of agricultural products and fertilizers from Russia (mainly related to banking issues and insurance of ships).
In his recent speeches, Turkish President R.T. Erdogan emphasizes the importance of resuming the grain deal and draws the attention of Western countries to the fairness of the Russian side's demands to fulfill its part of the deal. In turn, I emphasize that Belarus has always made a significant contribution to ensuring food security in the world, and is fully interested in continuing to ensure it. Belarus has exported its agricultural products and foodstuffs to more than 100 countries around the world. According to the results of last year, the volume of exports of Belarusian agricultural products and food products amounted to $ 8.3 billion, which is a fifth of the country's GDP.
Regarding fertilizers, I would like to note that Belarus has repeatedly raised the issue that sanctions against Belarusian potash fertilizers, including Lithuania's illegal ban on the transit of Belarusian potash, pose a threat to world hunger and global food security.
However, Lithuania continues to claim an allegedly insignificant contribution of Belarus to global food security, despite the 20% share of Belarus in the world trade in potash fertilizers until 2022. The shortage of potash fertilizers as a result of restrictive measures against Belarusian potash has led to a shortage of them on world markets and a rise in price and, accordingly, a reduction in their use, a decrease in yields and an increase in food prices. A particularly dangerous situation, capable of developing into a large-scale famine, is developing in the least developed countries of the world.
Below, in the interests of maximum objectivity, I will outline the conclusions made by reputable international organizations and agencies.
1. The briefs of the Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance established by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, issued on 13 April 2022 and 8 June 2022, note that, together, Belarus and the Russian Federation export around a fifth of the world’s fertilizers. In addition, a loss of fertilizer supply from the Russian Federation and Belarus has led to fertilizer prices rising even faster than food prices. Many farmers, and especially smallholders, are thus squeezed to reduce production, as the fertilizers they need become more expensive than the grains they sell. Furthermore, because of this key fertilizer issue, global food production in 2023 may not be able to meet rising demand. It is also noted that one out of every two people worldwide depend on agricultural products that use fertilizers.
2. According to the joint recommendations of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Trade Organization to the Group of 20, entitled “Global fertilizer markets and policies”, dated 14 November 2022:
– Global fertilizer prices have risen significantly;
– The price increase has been facilitated by the reduction of fertilizer supplies to the world markets;
– Exports of potash fertilizers from Belarus declined sharply from 3.62 million tons in the first quarter of 2021 to 1.95 million tons in the first quarter of 2022. Import statistics for the most recent months suggest that the decline in supplies from Belarus has accelerated;
– Africa only accounts for 3 to 4 per cent of global fertilizer use, of which approximately 50 per cent of its fertilizer supplies nutrify Africa’s allimportant cash crops. Consequently, contractions in fertilizer use would have severe ramifications, including undermining the food security of some agrarian-based communities;
– Every effort should be made to keep international trade in fertilizers open to meet domestic and global demand. 3. According to an article from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) dated 9 November 2022:
– As a result of the sanctions, Belarusian potash fertilizer exports decreased from 9.1 million tons (1 December 2021) to 3.9 million tons (1 December 2022);
– Potash importers may refuse to buy from Russia and Belarus due to the additional costs and risks associated with doing business with the countries subject to sanctions.
4. From a World Bank article dated 5 January 2023:
– Global potash prices were $562 per ton as at 1 December 2022, compared to $221 per ton as at 1 January 2022;
– Potash exports from Belarus have fallen by more than 50 per cent due to the restriction on using European Union territory for transit purposes. In particular, Lithuania has halted the use of its railway network to transport Belarusian potash to the port of Klaipeda, which typically handles 90 per cent of Belarusian exports.
5. From the concluding observations of the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights on the third periodic report of Lithuania, dated 30 March 2023:
– The Committee remains concerned by recent measures taken by the State party that have prevented transportation of potash from Belarus destined for third countries in Africa and Latin America, leading to a shortage of fertilizer and adversely affecting food security in those countries;
– The Committee recommends that the State party review the recent measures that have had an adverse effect on the price of fertilizer and on food security in third countries.
This is far from an exhaustive list of such publications.
In 2021, Belarus and Russia almost equally accounted for more than 40 per cent of potash supplies, with 35.9 per cent covered by Canada and 5.8 per cent by the United States of America.
Belarus’ share in the global potash trade in 2022 decreased to about 9 per cent and Russia’s share was around 16.4 per cent. As a result of the drop-off in volumes from Belarus and Russia, potash fertilizer prices simultaneously increased.
Thus the sanctions imposed on the potash industry of Belarus therefore became one of the main reasons for a significant rise in fertilizer prices in 2022, resulting in a sharp rise in the price of ready-to-eat food products. For example, the price of potassium chloride in Brazil in 2022 reached an alltime high of $1,200 per ton. The impacts of this shock were felt for a long time by international buyers of Brazilian agricultural products, when the price of some types of ready-to-eat food products increased by almost five times.
In 2023, according to the World Bank’s April forecast, on average, the world price for potash fertilizers will roll back to $475 per ton, and to $425 per ton in 2024. However, potash prices in both 2023 and 2024 will be higher than in 2021 (the period when the restrictive measures were imposed on Belarusian potash).
It should be recalled that, according to the World Bank, global potash prices as at 1 January 2022 were $221 per ton. Despite a slight drop in prices, affordability for farmers is still low. Vulnerable countries are the most affected by the sanctions.
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Belarus’ share in Africa’s potash markets decreased from 41.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent in 2022. While Belarus supplied about 632,000 tons of potassium to 30 countries on the African continent in 2021, it supplied about 30,000 tons to six countries in 2022. Such countries as Cameroon, Kenya, Reunion, the United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe were supplied exclusively with Belarusian fertilizers. A number of countries, including Côte d’Ivoire, the Gabon, Madagascar, Malawi, Senegal and Sierra Leone, met 50 per cent of their fertilizer needs with Belarusian potash.
According to our calculations made based on FAO data, the almost complete disappearance of Belarus from the list of potassium suppliers in 2022 led to a 16.1 per cent drop in Africa’s cereal harvest.
In 2023, supplies to Africa have been completely paralysed because of Lithuania’s actions. The widespread uncertainty about potash fertilizer supplies from Belarus among potash market players and related industries could have devastating impacts on agricultural supply chains and food security around the world.
The shortage of potash on the international market cannot be filled in the short term: it is difficult for existing producers to quickly increase their current production volumes and the entry of “new players” requires significant development costs and time. The construction of a new mine takes a minimum of 5 to 7 years from the time a decision is made until the first ton is produced.
Thus, while the current food crisis is related to lack of access to fertilizer, it may be related to a lack of food in the coming years. This has been repeatedly stated by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
It should be borne in mind that the world’s population is projected to grow. According to United Nations experts, the world’s population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050, and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s.
As the world population grows, there will be a further increase in potassium consumption owing to shrinking and impoverished arable land and rising disposable incomes in developing countries. At the same time, this will cause a deficit in the global potash supply.
It is obvious that illegal unilateral coercive measures or, in a word, sanctions against Belarus put the population in vulnerable countries on the verge of starvation and lead to food insecurity in the countries that initiated such measures.
Sanctions adopted by countries bypassing the UN Security Council on food and fertilizers are among the most irresponsible decisions for several reasons.
First, as noted above, the global situation with hunger has not improved in recent years.
Secondly, the sanctions on fertilizers are most painful not for the countries against which they are imposed, but for the poorest countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Thirdly, the sanctions on fertilizers have a prolonged effect: by not applying fertilizers this year, farmers in the poorest countries will receive a smaller harvest next year, which will further aggravate the situation with hunger.
An acute discussion on the impact of sanctions on fertilizers on hunger has been going on at the FAO site for more than a year, but so far to no avail.
The United States and its allies generally started by stating that there were no sanctions on fertilizers, that is, with a lie. Today they are diligently, but, as a rule, unsuccessfully trying to avoid discussing this very sensitive topic, especially in the presence of the most "affected" States in Africa and other regions. At the initiative of Belarus, the FAO member countries have formed an informal "anti-sanctions group" in Rome, which, among other things, develops and coordinates joint actions aimed at the speedy removal of all unilateral coercive measures against such an extremely important position for the whole world as fertilizers. We plan to further increase our efforts to work with the countries of the so called "collective West", which makes decisions for the sake of its political ambitions, which are one of the main causes of global hunger.
I do believe that the efforts of the Turkish side in the person of the respected President of your country, R.T. Erdogan, to resume the grain deal can be effective, but not only in terms of grain, but also fertilizers, not only Russian, but also Belarusian. Thus, only for potash fertilizers Belarus and Russia will together provide their usual share of the world market of 40%. And this will be a serious contribution of Belarus, Russia and Turkey to ensuring global food security."
